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Asian markets bounced strongly higher Monday morning as investors were hoping for more progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and China this week, as well as anticipating the return of stimulus measures from global central banks.
Japan’s Nikkei was at its highest level yet in 2019 as it advanced 1.9% in response to the positive conclusion of U.S.-China trade talks last week. The financial sector is leading gains with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial rising almost 3% and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial higher by more than 3%. The oil sector is also extremely strong after crude gained more than 2% last Friday. 👉www.imsholdings.co.za
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This weeks analysis. Any questions please do not hesitate to ask.
Dollar – Price is looking quite exhaustive on the daily with lots of profit taking on Friday. The seasonal bullish period typically lasts till mid-November. There is still room to the Monthly R2 at 96.8 and should price eventually reach there, then expect consolidation most of this week before any further move up.
EURUSD – Opposite movement to the dollar. Should the pair fall any further then look for consolidation this week and price to stay below 1.1432 before a move down to the August low / Weekly 200 MA.
GBPUSD – See Chart.
AUDUSD & NZDUSD – For the past two months the COT data for both pairs have been extremely bullish yet the price has constantly shown weakness. At some point, these two pairs will explode to the upside. Referring to the charts, should Dollar strength last till Mid-November then expect to see a scenario similar to Movement 1, otherwise if the dollar rally has come to an end then I’d like to see PA similar to Movement 2. Movement 1 will also look similar to the 2017 PA.
USDCAD – Price broke out and fell back into the Daily TL. The conflict in PA should not be surprising as the pair is in a weekly uptrend fighting a monthly down trend. We are at a crucial point I feel and any further attempt and failure to break out of the Daily TL will mean the likely start of Phase 1 Monthly downtrend.
USDJPY – Price broke support and immediately was bought back. I think we are getting close to a turnaround in the pair. Looking ahead - Likely scenarios are either a quick turnaround and rally or consolidation this week followed by some downside before the eventual turnaround and movement to the upside. I’d expect indices will follow a similar pattern.
GOLD – See Chart. .
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