Safe haven currencies JPY and USD are on a winning streak this week again amid escalating trade tensions. USD retraced slightly on Thursday’s soft print of Markit Manufacturing PMI and Service PMI. Moving forward, USD could rebound as the market is not expected to drag based on one weak economic data, especially when Fed’s belief in the current interest rate reduces the market’s speculation of interest rate cuts this year. As the trade war front could spread to more countries after Trump administration moves to impose tariffs on countries with undervalued currencies, JPY could still be favored by investors for next week’s trading.
Over the week, the AUD was butchered in the wake of the recent dismal Australian jobs, construction output data and ongoing trade tensions; increasing bets for a rate cut this June are sending yields to record lows at 1.53%. Next week, Australia's building approvals and private capital expenditure data will give us a better idea of the health of the economy. However, investors are likely to focus on China's PMI that could deliver more negative news as its PMI is set to drop back into contraction territory as pressure from the trade war mounts.
NZD and CAD’s better than expected domestic datas failed to lift the currency as falling oil prices and rising US-China trade tension overshadowed. Next week for NZD, its financial stability report, business confidence report and annual budget release will be due. And for the CAD, BoC will deliver their rate statement which is expected to remain unchanged. Their GDP data will also be released, which is something to watch closely.
EUR started the week higher on strong economic data but political uncertainty in Italy dampened sentiment as Matteo Salvini’s probable emergence would mean more budget clashes with the EU. Next week, weak economic data could add on to the bearish pressure. GBP plunged as investors braced themselves of a hard or no-deal Brexit as May is forced to resign. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson, seen as the top contender increases risks of a no-deal Brexit. Given the current outlook, there might be more room for GBP’s decline but caution the volatility any gains in support
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JPY and USD edged higher amid escalating trade tensions this week. Moving forward, USD could edge lower as the recent weak data has spurred speculation of a need to adopt an easing monetary policy for Fed. Next Friday will see the release of the monthly core durable goods orders. As the U.S. consumption remains weak, factory orders data could fall short of expectations, which could put more downward pressure on USD. For JPY, on the data front, next Monday will see the release of GDP data, which might show the economy shrinking by at least 2% in the first quarter. JPY could extend its rally if the trade tensions intensify next week.
AUD and NZD were battered down badly as the risk-sensitive assets suffered from a sudden escalation in US-China trade tension. Yesterday, Aussie’s unemployment printed softer than expected, leaving investors anticipating an interest rate cut in June. Support for the two currencies were further eroded when China's data missed estimates in April.
Adding to the volatility is the electoral vote that occurs tomorrow. A labor win would weigh on sentiments and in turn, the AUD. New Zealand will release its retail sales and trade balance data where it could possibly print soft numbers as its economy has shown signs of economy slowdown.
CAD remained performed better than other commodity currencies. Oil rose for a third day amid tensions, and upbeat domestic data from its ADP employment report and manufacturing shipments helped lift CAD. Next week, its core retail sales data will be released, giving us the latest clues on the health of the economy.
Pound slipped on fading optimism of a cross-party Brexit deal while May faced repeated calls for resignation, which could result in an election to break the deadlock, increasing risks of a hard Brexit in November. EUR plunged amid rising transatlantic tensions while Italy said they are prepared to break EU fiscal rules if necessary to boost employment. In return for the delay of auto tariffs, EU would have to restrict imports of automobiles and parts into the US which could hurt their economic growth in the long run. Next week, we will see the release of CPI, PPI and GDP data which could rattle
2 2118 May, 2019
USD moved sideways this week with US data still showing a mixed picture. The dollar dropped at the beginning of the week due to low inflation data and was later saved by a more neutral Fed. On Friday, the non-farm payroll is to be released and could strengthen the USD. However, next week we’re set to see the release of PPI and core CPI, which could still show low price levels and put upward pressure on USD. Japan was on public holiday this week and will be back next Tuesday. The risk aversion this week has helped buoyed JPY and could still support JPY due to the lack of clarity in the trade talk.
EUR edged higher on strong economic data. Manufacturing is picking up and unemployment rate fell the lowest level in a decade. Moving forward, we are bearish, given that Germany's weak retail sales and manufacturing data meant that recovery might not be sustainable. Pound edged higher after Brexit seems to be coming to a compromise, along with strong PMI data and BOE’s hawkish tone. However, the political uncertainty surrounding Brexit and lack of market's response to a potential rate hike by BOE showed investor's confidence remained dented in the economy. Next week will also see the release of GDP and PMI data.
China's manufacturing PMI results came in lesser than expected, thus sending the AUD and NZD down as risk sentiments eroded. Weak NZ employment data spurred speculations of a rate cut to 1.5% as soon as next week. This morning, Australia's building permits data came below expectations, sending AUD down 0.2% to 0.6985. Next week sees an important week for the AUD for NZD as as their central banks meet.
This week, GDP data came in weak and falling oil prices pressed the loonie down further. Next week, trade balance data are due for release and a possible weaker than expected could add further bearish pressure on the currency.
Disclaimer: The publication of Analytics is a marketing communication and does not constitute investment advice or research. Its content represents the general views of our experts and does not consider individual readers’ personal circumstances, investment experience, or current financial situation. The Analytics is not prepared in a
4 367 May, 2019
Dollar traders, we reckon you’ve been waiting for this week: it’s time for the NFP!
In addition to non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate shows the percentage of people unemployed last month in the US.
Although most statistics on employment are likely to remain nearly the same as last month, these releases have a huge affect on the forex market. Surprising figures often cause large movements, especially by the dollar.
AUD was placed under pressure after its CPI data fell short of expectations, puting inflation way below the expected rate of 3%. This refueled speculations of a possible rate cut leading to major selling of the currency. NZD was dragged along for the ride, however ended the week outperforming its cousin. Next week, China will host US negotiators in a new round of trade negotiations. Also, China’s manufacturing PMI due next week will give a read on how its economy is holding. Positive news from this two events will support the AUD and NZD. However, Australia’s home prices data set to be released next week could disappoint, kicking up speculations of a rate cut.
BoC took a more dovish stance than expected this week, adding pressure on the CAD. Still, CAD remains in a vulnerable position amid oil supply uncertainty. Any news on oil supply constraint will support the leading exporter of oil’s currency. USD remains one of the top performing currency this week. US has proved to be resilient to the economic slowdown, with its safe haven currency quickly recovering its losses after disappointing job claims data. Focus remains on its GDP results to be released later in the day.
GBP plunged as Prime Minister Theresa May pushed to get Brexit a deal through the parliament by the end of the month. Meanwhile, softer economic data from Eurozone and Public Sector Net Borrowing fueled the decline. Next week, BOE’s interest rates decision it is likely to be unchanged.
EUR slid further as IFO data missed estimates. Moving forward, tightened screws on Iran sanctions might add bearish pressure to the currency as EU struggles between abandoning or pursuing the original plan of facilitating trade with Iran and face sanctions themselves. Next week, the release of key economic data on PMI, CPI and GDP which might add on to the bearish pressure. Elsewhere, traders pile into their net long positions on JPY ahead of Japan's 10 day holiday to prepare for a sharp drop in liquidity which raised fears of a repeat of the flash crash seen in January.
Disclaimer: The publication of Analytics is a marketing communication and does not constitute investment advice or research. Its content repr
Please be aware that trading on metal #pairs and #US#Oil will be unavailable from 21:00 GMT+0 on 18 April until 00:10 GMT+0 on 22 April. Other trading instruments may experience low liquidity during this period.
As you may already know, low liquidity can lead to significant volatility, and while market volatility can reveal trading opportunities, it can also increase your exposure to #risk . Please take this into account when planning your trading.
Dear [Client name], As you may already know, yesterday we experienced an unexpected technical issue that affected the pricing of certain instruments, including: AUDGBP, EURCAD, EURJPY, EURNZD, EURAUD, USDJPY, EURMXN and CADJPY.
The issue occurred during a period of scheduled maintenance, and resulted in a number of price spikes between the hours of 05:15 GMT+0 and 06:42 GMT+0 on 15 April, 2019.
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In line with our values and our commitment to offering the fairest trading service in the industry, we immediately compensated those clients who incurred losses as a direct result of this issue. Those traders who were in the fortunate position to profit from the spikes can, of course, withdraw any gains they made.
Technical issues such as the one we experienced are almost unheard of, and we hope that our prompt action has put your mind at ease.
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You’ve probably heard traders discussing scalping and swing trading and what’s better.
Curious about the difference between these #two ? If so, continue reading!
Well, #swingtrading means opening longer term positions. They might be held for a few days to a couple of weeks. Swing traders #try to identify a trend and open an order soon after it starts. When the trend is nearly over, they close their positions.
On the other hand, #scalping is about opening short intraday positions. Orders might be held for a few minutes #or even #seconds . Gains for each trade are smaller, but scalpers usually make many small trades each day.
You often ask whether you can use any trading strategy, robots, scripts, or indicators.
Here is the answer: YES, you can!
We know that you all have a specific trading strategy that you follow.
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At Exness you can apply any trading strategy you choose.
You can also use any kind of tools, including #RSI , #MACD , #Fibonacci#retracements , expert advisors, and others to enhance your strategy.